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Measured on real files with quality held fixed (SSIM vs the source, harness self-tested at 1.0000): hevc_nvenc cq27 produced 115% and 119% of the source video bitrate on two of three files while cq30/31 landed 51-84%; libx265 crf26 landed 33.7/56.7/67.0% at min SSIM 0.988-0.993, i.e. 10-22% smaller than NVENC at matched quality. Two sources with identical bpp (0.0437) shrank 49% vs 17%, so bpp classifies files but does not predict the ratio. Notes the audio floor (a 33.7% video stream still yields a 53% file because AAC dominates what is left) and why VP9/AV1 sources have no headroom (copy the video).